Thu, Feb 16, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 013 | 19 | 135 |
| MIN | 19 | 16 | 111 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:59MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Jason Pominville, Mikko Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 4:51MINErik HaulaGWGAssists: Jordan Schroeder, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 5:19DALCody EakinAssists: Antoine Roussel, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 13:04MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Erik Haula, Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 19:20DALCurtis McKenzie: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 2:39MINMikko Koivu: Holding2 min
- P3 11:35MINChristian Folin: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:35DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:16DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:16MINCharlie Coyle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:17MINNino Niederreiter: Interference5 min
- P3 18:17MINErik Haula: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:17MINNino Niederreiter: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 18:17DALRadek Faksa: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Benn – Seguin5:31
xG 0.96–0.14 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Ritchie4:37
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin2:47
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sharp – Roussel – Faksa5:39
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Oleksiak14:16
xG 0.43–0.03 (93%)attempts 23–4goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell18:39
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Benn14:03
xG 1.00–1.27 (44%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Coyle – Tuch9:45
xG 0.92–0.28 (77%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Stewart – Schroeder – Haula8:19
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Pominville – Staal – Niederreiter10:59
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund14:06
xG 0.42–1.34 (24%)attempts 9–26goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Olofsson11:53
xG 0.86–0.30 (74%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin14:43
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 10–25goals 0–1
- Suter – Spurgeon20:41
xG 0.59–1.34 (30%)attempts 15–28goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).