Thu, Feb 16, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 211 | 116 | 336 |
| EDM | 210 | 38 | 17 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Mark Letestu, Iiro Pakarinen · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 15:19EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Matt Benning, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 0:31PHIRadko GudasAssists: Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 7:17EDMJordan EberleAssists: Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 8:32EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Eric Gryba, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 16:39EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Connor McDavid, Matt Hendricks · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
- P2 19:15PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 7:13PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 14:50EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Jordan Eberle, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:14EDMMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:14PHIBrandon Manning: Embellishment2 min
- P2 10:35PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:35EDMPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:13EDMMatt Benning: Interference2 min
- P2 17:02EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P3 6:39EDMPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Cousins – Couturier6:32
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 13–4goals 1–2
- VandeVelde – Read – Bellemare3:01
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Read – Cousins – Raffl3:34
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Read – Raffl – Bellemare4:13
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Del Zotto2:00
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Streit – Provorov2:48
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas11:30
xG 0.29–0.30 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Eberle – McDavid12:36
xG 0.97–0.27 (78%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula11:30
xG 0.45–0.36 (55%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Lucic – Slepyshev – Draisaitl12:44
xG 0.15–0.61 (20%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Hendricks – Letestu – Pakarinen9:12
xG 0.08–0.54 (12%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom18:32
xG 0.83–0.27 (75%)attempts 21–15goals 3–0
- Sekera – Benning17:37
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 13–20goals 0–2
- Gryba – Davidson15:05
xG 0.39–1.07 (27%)attempts 10–27goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).