Fri, Feb 17, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Colorado Avalanche 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 012 | 08 | 13 | 237 |
| CAR | 19 | 012 | 08 | 00 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:48COLTyson BarrieAssists: Jarome Iginla, John Mitchell · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 19:11CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Lee Stempniak, Brett Pesce · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- OT 4:23COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:52COLJoe Colborne: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:44CARDerek Ryan: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:01COLJoe Colborne: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:09CARLee Stempniak: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Duchene – Rantanen8:05
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Nieto – Landeskog – MacKinnon9:50
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Grigorenko7:27
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Colborne – Martinsen4:54
xG 0.04–0.21 (17%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Zadorov10:01
xG 0.54–0.14 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Barberio – Barrie5:11
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Tyutin2:48
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Stalberg – Nordstrom4:49
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Teravainen8:46
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Rask – McGinn – Ryan7:35
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho9:10
xG 0.26–0.59 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce12:29
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin10:52
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk11:00
xG 0.14–0.73 (16%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).