Fri, Feb 17, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 313 | 18 | 431 |
| ANA | 09 | 113 | 014 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:45ANAAndrew CoglianoSHAssists: Logan Shaw · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 4:18FLAColton SceviourAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 6:58FLAJaromir JagrGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 10:08FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.48 xG3–1
- P3 18:02FLADerek MacKenzieENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:12FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P1 16:28ANANate Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:34ANAOndrej Kase: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:48ANASami Vatanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:03FLAJonathan Marchessault: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:57FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:57ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:23FLAJonathan Marchessault: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour5:44
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:16
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- McKegg – Bjugstad – Marchessault8:09
xG 0.05–0.44 (10%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:16
xG 0.08–0.65 (11%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Pysyk14:49
xG 0.69–0.52 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Yandle – Ekblad15:56
xG 0.78–0.82 (49%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Demers – Matheson11:35
xG 0.28–0.53 (35%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Silfverberg – Kase7:03
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Rakell – Ritchie4:07
xG 0.41–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Cramarossa – Rakell2:34
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Kase3:50
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Vatanen10:49
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Montour2:31
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Fowler – Montour12:34
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).