Sat, Feb 18, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 015 | 17 | 211 | 333 |
| MTL | 16 | 09 | 05 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:04MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 4:52WPGJoel ArmiaSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 1:16WPGMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Patrik Laine · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:43WPGPatrik LaineENAssists: Ben Chiarot, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:25MTLShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:15WPGJacob Trouba: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:26WPGNic Petan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:53MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:18WPGMathieu Perreault: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:46WPGJoel Armia: Interference2 min
- P3 10:09MTLAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Ehlers11:11
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Perreault – Scheifele – Laine14:03
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia8:50
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Petan – Tanev5:31
xG 0.08–0.17 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey19:00
xG 0.84–0.56 (60%)attempts 26–16goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba2:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot17:49
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Flynn – McCarron7:09
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Shaw – Danault – Lehkonen8:47
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk7:45
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Shaw – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen2:50
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNesterov – Beaulieu10:51
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry14:20
xG 0.69–0.74 (48%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Weber – Emelin15:50
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).