Sat, Feb 18, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 2, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 011 | 218 | 239 |
| MIN | 19 | 113 | 311 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:38MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P2 17:00MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 0:35MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P3 8:16NSHColin WilsonAssists: Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
- P3 10:25NSHJames NealAssists: P.K. Subban, Colin Wilson · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 16:41MINJason ZuckerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 18:05MINEric StaalENAssists: Jason Pominville, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:09NSHHarry Zolnierczyk: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 5:55NSHP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P1 7:42NSHColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:43NSHAustin Watson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:43MINChris Stewart: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:48NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:48MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:33NSHJames Neal: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:00MINZach Parise: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:17MINChris Stewart: Interference2 min
- P3 19:17NSHVernon Fiddler: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:17MINChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Wilson – Jarnkrok11:19
xG 0.74–0.08 (90%)attempts 21–3goals 2–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:56
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 15–5goals 0–3
- Fiddler – Zolnierczyk – Sissons7:49
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Watson9:53
xG 0.10–0.32 (24%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi12:12
xG 0.83–0.07 (92%)attempts 27–3goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis2:37
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm14:24
xG 0.37–0.37 (49%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Granlund11:44
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–16goals 3–0
- Parise – Haula – Coyle3:06
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Staal – Niederreiter11:09
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Stewart – Schroeder – Haula8:26
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Olofsson13:13
xG 0.60–0.13 (82%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon15:33
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Scandella – Folin14:53
xG 0.35–0.95 (27%)attempts 16–24goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).