Sun, Feb 19, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 210 | 06 | 38 | 524 |
| PIT | 19 | 011 | 16 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48DETNick JensenAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:09PITTom KuhnhacklSHAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 16:29DETSteve OttAssists: Riley Sheahan · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 0:27DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 2:16DETThomas VanekUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 2:23PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:08DETLuke GlendeningENAssists: Steve Ott, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 13:32PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:05DETAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:05PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:50DETNick Jensen: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:02DETXavier Ouellet: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:07PITIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:54PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:47DETSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P3 15:11DETTomas Tatar: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:23PITNick Bonino: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:56PITCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:56DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Athanasiou5:35
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Ott – Sheahan – Glendening7:15
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Mantha10:29
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Abdelkader – Helm – Larkin5:21
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Sproul4:15
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Smith8:05
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ouellet – Sproul3:40
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin4:32
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel5:59
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl7:31
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Wilson4:08
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Ruhwedel12:25
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Daley – Gaunce7:38
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Daley – Cole2:37
xG 0.06–0.13 (29%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).