Sun, Feb 19, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 27 | 06 | 17 | 320 |
| OTT | 010 | 19 | 115 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:28WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 5:10OTTMark StonePPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 2:33WPGJosh MorrisseyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 5:05OTTZack SmithAssists: Derick Brassard, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:27OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:54WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:02WPGBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:20WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:42WPGJacob Trouba: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Scheifele – Laine16:01
xG 0.44–0.19 (69%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Little – Ehlers12:25
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia10:27
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Petan – Tanev4:37
xG 0.03–0.28 (9%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot22:17
xG 0.55–0.25 (68%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba2:12
xG 0.03–0.01 (66%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma7:37
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Smith – Stone7:38
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Kelly – Wingels – Lazar5:11
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Brassard – Smith3:30
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Dzingel3:25
xG 0.01–0.02 (43%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson8:35
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Karlsson4:39
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci6:05
xG 0.04–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).