Sun, Feb 19, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 117 | 212 | 28 | 537 |
| BUF | 112 | 08 | 06 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:34CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Tanner Kero, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:54BUFEvander KaneAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:40CHIMarian HossaGWGAssists: Marcus Kruger, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 15:26CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Richard Panik, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–1
- P3 3:29CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 6:36CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:32CHIRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:18BUFDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:46CHIRichard Panik: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:58CHIBrian Campbell: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:59CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:20BUFJosh Gorges: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Schmaltz11:33
xG 0.73–0.20 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Rasmussen6:43
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Hartman – Kero8:20
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:48
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Kempny11:18
xG 0.74–0.12 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson15:02
xG 0.96–0.51 (65%)attempts 18–8goals 2–1
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk15:46
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Moulson – Ennis – Eichel2:35
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kane – Baptiste – Eichel10:56
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Bailey9:52
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Rodrigues8:56
xG 0.17–0.50 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Franson – Bogosian14:38
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen13:56
xG 0.44–0.85 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
- Gorges – Kulikov13:26
xG 0.22–0.70 (24%)attempts 6–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).