Sun, Feb 19, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
New Jersey Devils 4, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 211 | 19 | 430 |
| NYI | 113 | 315 | 24 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15NJDMiles WoodPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 14:33NYIRyan StromeAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 2:44NYICasey CizikasAssists: Stephen Gionta, Thomas Hickey · Wrap-around, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 9:32NYIRyan StromeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 11:59NYIAndrew LaddSHAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 13:21NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Travis Zajac, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 17:55NJDJoseph BlandisiAssists: Steven Santini, Stefan Noesen · Slap, 0.27 xG3–4
- P3 0:26NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Anders Lee · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 1:00NYIJason ChimeraUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG3–6
- P3 8:37NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Damon Severson, Keith Kinkaid · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:54NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:01NYIDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:20NJDAndy Greene: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:29NYIAndrew Ladd: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 11:40NJDTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beauvillier won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Noesen – Blandisi3:05
xG 0.30–0.07 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall13:56
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Henrique – Bennett5:43
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Blandisi – Wood5:09
xG 0.02–0.19 (9%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Santini14:32
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 2–2
- Moore – Severson12:52
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
- Greene – Lovejoy15:52
xG 0.34–0.70 (33%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:26
xG 0.61–0.12 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kulemin – Cizikas5:59
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine8:34
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Nelson – Strome – Beauvillier11:35
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield16:13
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 23–11goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – de Haan12:44
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Boychuk – Leddy19:12
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).