Sun, Feb 19, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 215 | 110 | 432 |
| CBJ | 019 | 29 | 110 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24NSHRyan EllisAssists: Roman Josi, James Neal · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 9:38NSHKevin FialaAssists: Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 10:36CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Seth Jones, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 15:40NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: James Neal, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.29 xG3–1
- P2 17:39CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Zach Werenski · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 3:41CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 9:09NSHMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 9:00NSHMike Fisher: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Smith – Fiala11:14
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok12:42
xG 0.86–0.61 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:35
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Watson – Sissons9:06
xG 0.25–0.74 (25%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm20:36
xG 1.87–0.48 (80%)attempts 26–10goals 2–0
- Weber – Irwin12:07
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis21:14
xG 0.83–1.33 (38%)attempts 19–31goals 1–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg4:44
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Saad – Karlsson – Anderson2:52
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Saad4:42
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Karlsson – Anderson5:13
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara12:57
xG 0.74–0.55 (57%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Jones – Werenski21:39
xG 0.85–1.03 (45%)attempts 26–15goals 2–1
- Johnson – Savard18:04
xG 0.84–1.10 (43%)attempts 21–21goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).