Sun, Feb 19, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 211 | 08 | 328 |
| VAN | 08 | 26 | 06 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 1:11PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 2:38PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 3:43VANMarkus GranlundAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 12:42VANJannik HansenAssists: Bo Horvat, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:08VANMichael Chaput: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:03VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:48PHIMichael Del Zotto: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:15PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:16VANNikita Tryamkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:41PHIRoman Lyubimov: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:55PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Weise – Couturier12:07
xG 0.74–0.10 (88%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Read – Cousins – Raffl7:46
xG 0.59–0.65 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov4:06
xG 0.02–0.21 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn11:51
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Gostisbehere11:56
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas14:03
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Manning – Provorov13:09
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Granlund8:41
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Hansen – Granlund – Horvat2:50
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Chaput – Boucher – Gaunce3:30
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Burrows – Hansen – Horvat7:25
xG 0.04–0.10 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Tanev13:24
xG 0.75–0.21 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Edler – Hutton2:14
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin11:20
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).