Mon, Feb 20, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 2, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 08 | 117 | 233 |
| STL | 012 | 03 | 112 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:40FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 2:54STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Scottie Upshall, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 19:55FLAVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Mark Pysyk, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:41FLAMike Matheson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:59STLPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:26FLAAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck13:26
xG 0.78–0.45 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov15:27
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour4:19
xG 0.05–0.06 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Sgarbossa – Marchessault11:44
xG 0.17–0.76 (19%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad16:05
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk15:45
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Demers – Matheson16:16
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Paajarvi – Schwartz9:29
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves7:14
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Perron – Lehtera – Barbashev9:15
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:20
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko15:29
xG 0.92–0.43 (68%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Bortuzzo11:08
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:23
xG 0.51–0.93 (35%)attempts 11–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).