Tue, Feb 21, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 2, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 19 | 14 | 223 |
| NJD | 010 | 010 | 110 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:59OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 4:11OTTErik KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 6:37NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:23NJDTaylor Hall: Holding2 min
- P3 1:57NJDMiles Wood: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 1:57OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 3:59NJDJoseph Blandisi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:55OTTTommy Wingels: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Turris – Pageau4:25
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Turris – Dzingel – Pageau7:08
xG 0.24–0.28 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Kelly – Wingels – Lazar8:43
xG 0.02–0.21 (7%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Brassard – Smith9:48
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Karlsson4:17
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman3:47
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:43
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Josefson – Noesen9:25
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall14:54
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Blandisi – Wood8:29
xG 0.43–0.30 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Henrique – Zacha4:00
xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Severson18:42
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Greene – Lovejoy15:59
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Merrill – Santini15:44
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).