Tue, Feb 21, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 16 | 19 | 322 |
| CAR | 114 | 010 | 06 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15PITScott WilsonAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Matt Cullen · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:00CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Lee Stempniak, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 16:21PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 9:41PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.20 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:48PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:09PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:04CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:55PITEvgeni Malkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:14PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:35CARSebastian Aho: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:31CARViktor Stalberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:11CARLee Stempniak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin10:48
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Fehr – Kuhnhackl – Rowney4:26
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel4:52
xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kunitz – Wilson2:49
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Ruhwedel10:38
xG 0.60–0.25 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin11:55
xG 0.65–0.48 (57%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Dumoulin – Ruhwedel2:08
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Lindholm – Aho9:18
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Skinner – Teravainen7:39
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Stalberg – Di Giuseppe – Ryan3:39
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – McGinn6:44
xG 0.26–0.50 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin11:44
xG 1.07–0.62 (63%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Tennyson – Hanifin6:35
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Slavin2:24
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).