Tue, Feb 21, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 6, Nashville Predators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 39 | 110 | 110 | 11 | 630 |
| NSH | 110 | 410 | 08 | 00 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 9:20NSHP.K. SubbanAssists: Austin Watson, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.00 xG1–1
- P1 11:00CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P1 17:24CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 5:12CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P2 10:50NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Colin Wilson, Viktor Arvidsson · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 11:47NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–3
- P2 16:07NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, James Neal · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–4
- P2 19:27NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.11 xG4–5
- P3 10:50CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–5
- OT 0:43CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:38CGYLance Bouma: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:00NSHKevin Fiala: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:27CGYSam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:27NSHRyan Johansen: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:24CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:59CGYMicheal Ferland: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:59NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:23NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:22CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:50
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett7:45
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson7:00
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan10:56
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 14–10goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton16:15
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 17–8goals 3–0
- Engelland – Brodie12:29
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Stone – Brodie2:33
xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Smith – Fiala9:32
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:46
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok11:47
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Fiddler – Watson – Sissons6:38
xG 0.05–0.31 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm16:39
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 3–1
- Josi – Ellis16:54
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 14–23goals 0–2
- Weber – Irwin11:04
xG 0.06–0.62 (8%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).