Tue, Feb 21, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 015 | 213 | 311 | 539 |
| MIN | 014 | 15 | 213 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:58CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brian Campbell, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 4:20MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–1
- P2 5:01CHIRichard PanikAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 0:33CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 6:41MINZach PariseAssists: Marco Scandella, Jason Pominville · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 8:23CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Richard Panik · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 13:09MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mikko Koivu · Deflected, 0.34 xG4–3
- P3 18:58CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.47 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:08CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:25MINJason Zucker: Holding2 min
- P3 1:52MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:52CHITanner Kero: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Schmaltz12:38
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 4–0
- Hinostroza – Hartman – Kero8:29
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin14:53
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Rasmussen7:53
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Kempny14:49
xG 0.48–0.33 (60%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk14:20
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 17–14goals 3–1
- Keith – Hjalmarsson17:30
xG 0.30–0.85 (26%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Haula12:30
xG 0.47–0.28 (62%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund14:29
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Stewart – Schroeder – Graovac5:54
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter10:36
xG 0.06–0.65 (9%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon21:08
xG 1.04–0.40 (72%)attempts 27–15goals 0–1
- Brodin – Olofsson7:34
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin6:48
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).