Wed, Feb 22, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 217 | 15 | 435 |
| FLA | 010 | 311 | 013 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18EDMOscar KlefbomUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 0:21FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Aaron Ekblad · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:26EDMZack KassianAssists: Eric Gryba, Mark Letestu · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 15:53FLAColton SceviourAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 18:59EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle, Milan Lucic · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 19:56FLAJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 12:02EDMKris RussellGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:35FLAShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:14EDMJujhar Khaira: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:14FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:14EDMEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:04EDMMatt Hendricks: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins13:12
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Pakarinen – Khaira8:50
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula9:21
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid16:31
xG 0.56–0.81 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Benning4:29
xG 1.03–0.04 (96%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Gryba – Davidson9:25
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Russell6:04
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:20
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour4:10
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov18:20
xG 0.81–0.79 (51%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Sgarbossa – Marchessault9:45
xG 0.32–0.45 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Petrovic – Pysyk16:55
xG 0.80–0.76 (51%)attempts 21–15goals 1–2
- Yandle – Ekblad17:56
xG 0.63–0.65 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Demers – Matheson15:36
xG 0.42–0.80 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).