Wed, Feb 22, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Washington Capitals 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 213 | 110 | 16 | 429 |
| PHI | 014 | 19 | 011 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:28WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 6:54PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Brandon Manning · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 17:59WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Justin Williams, Taylor Chorney · Deflected, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 14:43WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:16PHIClaude Giroux: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:17PHISean Couturier: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50WSHDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:50PHINick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:50PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:50WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:23WSHZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:14WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:00WSHT.J. Oshie: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:36
xG 1.35–0.80 (63%)attempts 15–19goals 2–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson10:44
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Sanford9:30
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov11:08
xG 0.14–0.64 (17%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson16:44
xG 0.90–0.33 (73%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Chorney – Orlov2:39
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Orpik – Chorney6:49
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Schenn15:53
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Voracek – Weise – Couturier11:46
xG 0.80–0.81 (50%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Read – Cousins – Raffl7:01
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov7:20
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov12:15
xG 1.19–1.10 (52%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Streit – Gostisbehere14:07
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Manning3:11
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).