Thu, Feb 23, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 011 | 18 | 05 | 2 | 238 |
| TOR | 19 | 09 | 013 | 02 | 1 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:56TORConnor BrownAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 10:50NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Kevin Hayes, Brandon Pirri · Snap, 0.36 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 2. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews scored
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
- 5. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:02NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:34TORFrederik Gauthier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:20NYRJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:20NYRRick Nash: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:48TORNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad12:57
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 25–7goals 0–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Fast5:52
xG 0.34–0.05 (87%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey10:07
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller9:18
xG 0.06–0.42 (13%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClendening – Skjei14:24
xG 0.88–0.52 (63%)attempts 25–11goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:42
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden14:06
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Gauthier – Soshnikov7:37
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:37
xG 0.39–0.37 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews13:04
xG 0.75–0.84 (47%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Leivo9:56
xG 0.13–0.55 (19%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Marchenko12:42
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Polak – Hunwick12:21
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Rielly – Zaitsev15:08
xG 0.60–0.79 (43%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).