Thu, Feb 23, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 3, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 18 | 13 | 324 |
| MTL | 08 | 08 | 08 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:58NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 19:01NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:27MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:35NYIBracken Kearns: Holding2 min
- P2 18:48MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P2 18:48MTLAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:48NYIAnders Lee: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee13:25
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Nelson – Strome – Beauvillier9:51
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine10:04
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kearns – Gionta – Kulemin7:08
xG 0.14–0.13 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy18:34
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan18:50
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield12:14
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen4:30
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Shaw4:59
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Shaw – Lehkonen8:12
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Flynn – McCarron6:44
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pateryn – Beaulieu13:55
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Weber – Emelin14:54
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Markov – Petry16:35
xG 0.35–0.64 (35%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).