Thu, Feb 23, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 13 | 09 | 222 |
| NSH | 111 | 212 | 16 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:31NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:52COLJarome IginlaAssists: John Mitchell · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:34COLPatrick WierciochAssists: Jarome Iginla, Andreas Martinsen · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 5:26NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 10:59NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:23NSHFilip ForsbergENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 9:22COLAndreas Martinsen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:01COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Landeskog – MacKinnon16:05
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Comeau – Duchene – Rantanen13:38
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Iginla – Mitchell – Martinsen11:34
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Soderberg – Colborne – Grigorenko6:42
xG 0.04–0.27 (14%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Wiercioch3:53
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Barrie8:44
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Goloubef6:32
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:01
xG 0.87–0.65 (57%)attempts 17–12goals 2–1
- Fisher – Smith – Fiala14:25
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Watson – Zolnierczyk7:59
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok12:13
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin10:22
xG 0.44–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis18:42
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Subban – Ekholm23:03
xG 0.44–0.76 (37%)attempts 21–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).