Fri, Feb 24, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 311 | 16 | 011 | 428 |
| FLA | 28 | 016 | 014 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 8:57CGYSam BennettAssists: Michael Stone, Troy Brouwer · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 10:16CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 13:51CGYDeryk EngellandGWGAssists: Michael Frolik, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–1
- P1 17:20FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 6:19CGYTroy BrouwerAssists: Matt Stajan, Lance Bouma · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:21CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:59CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:20CGYTJ Brodie: Elbowing2 min
- P2 19:20FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:58CGYTroy Brouwer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:33FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Brouwer – Bennett11:03
xG 0.79–0.22 (78%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:03
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson5:48
xG 0.04–0.03 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:57
xG 0.44–0.76 (37%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Bartkowski12:44
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Stone – Brodie16:04
xG 0.63–0.32 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Giordano – Hamilton17:01
xG 0.62–0.91 (40%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck13:39
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 25–8goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Sgarbossa – Marchessault4:43
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour7:22
xG 0.02–0.14 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:34
xG 0.32–0.80 (29%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Matheson16:19
xG 0.72–0.42 (63%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk13:32
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
- Yandle – Ekblad15:43
xG 0.36–0.86 (30%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).