Sat, Feb 25, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 07 | 014 | 133 |
| LAK | 06 | 013 | 414 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:53ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 3:37LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Tanner Pearson, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P3 7:48LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 8:05LAKDustin BrownAssists: Kevin Gravel, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 18:53LAKJeff CarterENAssists: Anze Kopitar, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:43ANAJakob Silfverberg: Interference2 min
- P1 13:58LAKBrayden McNabb: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:03LAKDwight King: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:25LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference2 min
- P2 3:45ANANick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:06ANANate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:06LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:06ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P2 8:06LAKDwight King: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:28ANAKorbinian Holzer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:24ANARyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:24LAKJeff Carter: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:22LAKTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:20ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Eaves – Ritchie4:06
xG 0.55–0.06 (90%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Perry – Eaves – Rakell4:51
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Kase5:18
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Boll – Shaw2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm12:03
xG 0.76–0.26 (74%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Holzer8:55
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson9:43
xG 1.21–0.63 (66%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Lewis – King – Shore4:09
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- King – Nolan – Shore4:33
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Kempe9:26
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort16:00
xG 1.35–0.87 (61%)attempts 20–18goals 2–1
- Muzzin – Gravel11:56
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Martinez – McNabb10:09
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).