Sat, Feb 25, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 210 | 017 | 112 | 11 | 440 |
| NJD | 015 | 110 | 212 | 01 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:40NYRChris KreiderAssists: Dan Girardi, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 17:32NYROscar LindbergAssists: Jesper Fast, Nick Holden · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 18:28NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Beau Bennett, PA Parenteau · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 0:27NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Travis Zajac, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:14NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Andy Greene, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 15:35NYRAdam ClendeningAssists: Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 1:16NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 12:03NJDDevante Smith-Pelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:10NYRChris Kreider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:55NYRJimmy Vesey: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Hayes – Miller9:34
xG 0.87–0.36 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Fast9:41
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad11:42
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Nash – Stepan – Fast2:29
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClendening – Skjei13:50
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Holden20:19
xG 1.18–0.75 (61%)attempts 16–22goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh19:09
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 17–22goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Henrique – Bennett7:16
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Smith-Pelly – Blandisi – Wood7:08
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall15:31
xG 0.40–0.61 (40%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
- Cammalleri – Josefson – Noesen12:03
xG 0.29–0.79 (27%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Santini14:06
xG 0.85–0.75 (53%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
- Greene – Lovejoy18:51
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Quincey – Severson18:00
xG 0.54–0.83 (40%)attempts 22–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).