Sat, Feb 25, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 05 | 110 | 226 |
| NSH | 09 | 39 | 28 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12WSHTom WilsonAssists: Jay Beagle, Daniel Winnik · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:56NSHRoman JosiAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 8:54NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 11:57NSHMike FisherPPGWGAssists: Ryan Ellis, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 12:07NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 17:03WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: John Carlson, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:08NSHViktor ArvidssonENAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:24NSHMatt Irwin: Interference2 min
- P1 14:56WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:56NSHHarry Zolnierczyk: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:01WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:10WSHDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:17WSHAlex Ovechkin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:04WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:55WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:55NSHMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:55NSHMike Fisher: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:55WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov13:36
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson6:32
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 1–2
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson2:03
xG 0.01–0.03 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Sanford2:14
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Ness2:00
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:13
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chorney – Orlov10:48
xG 0.19–0.17 (54%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Smith – Fiala8:24
xG 0.38–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:45
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Wilson – Jarnkrok – Watson9:54
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Neal – Zolnierczyk9:08
xG 0.06–0.12 (33%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Subban – Ekholm16:45
xG 0.50–0.46 (52%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
- Weber – Irwin12:50
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis15:57
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).