Sat, Feb 25, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 010 | 05 | 024 |
| CBJ | 317 | 216 | 212 | 745 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19CBJJack JohnsonGWGAssists: David Savard, Markus Hannikainen · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:21CBJBoone JennerAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 18:17CBJNick FolignoAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 4:31CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Boone Jenner, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 17:44CBJJosh AndersonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–5
- P3 6:06CBJNick FolignoAssists: David Savard, Alexander Wennberg · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–6
- P3 13:30CBJDavid SavardAssists: Sam Gagner, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–7
Penalties (2)
- P1 14:52NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:42NYIBracken Kearns: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Quine won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:09
xG 0.73–0.68 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ladd – Quine7:34
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Nelson – Strome – Beauvillier9:35
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Kearns – Gionta – Kulemin8:10
xG 0.16–0.67 (19%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hickey – Mayfield14:36
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Seidenberg – de Haan18:58
xG 0.70–1.06 (40%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy18:50
xG 0.14–1.01 (12%)attempts 10–28goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Gagner – Saad11:31
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner13:43
xG 0.97–0.68 (59%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg12:12
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Anderson – Hannikainen9:11
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard17:57
xG 1.02–0.30 (78%)attempts 23–10goals 4–0
- Murray – Nutivaara15:42
xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski17:11
xG 0.89–0.68 (57%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).