Sun, Feb 26, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 6, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 210 | 29 | 628 |
| DAL | 05 | 218 | 113 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:51BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Torey Krug, David Backes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 4:40DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jiri Hudler, Devin Shore · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 11:49DALJiri HudlerPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 14:41BOSFrank VatranoAssists: Kevan Miller, Ryan Spooner · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 15:21BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Zdeno Chara · Deflected, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 7:48BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 13:00DALTyler SeguinAssists: Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.37 xG5–3
- P3 14:23BOSRyan SpoonerPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.19 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:02BOSDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:11DALCurtis McKenzie: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:11BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:10BOSTorey Krug: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:23DALCurtis McKenzie: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:44BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:10DALStephen Johns: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Backes – Marchand7:56
xG 0.57–0.04 (93%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Hayes – Spooner – Vatrano8:28
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – Cehlarik4:03
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak5:42
xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Miller11:13
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Chara – Carlo17:31
xG 0.69–0.38 (65%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- McQuaid – Krug14:46
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Benn – Seguin – Ritchie2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Korpikoski – Faksa11:37
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
- Hudler – McKenzie – Shore5:27
xG 0.06–0.14 (29%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Benn – Eakin – Ritchie9:40
xG 0.05–0.22 (17%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell18:03
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Benn13:36
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- Oduya – Johns15:09
xG 0.49–0.95 (34%)attempts 18–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).