Sun, Feb 26, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Calgary Flames 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 210 | 14 | 324 |
| CAR | 19 | 013 | 013 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54CARVictor RaskPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 6:05CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:50CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 11:05CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (2)
- P1 4:07CGYSam Bennett: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:58CGYAlex Chiasson: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:42
xG 1.13–1.11 (50%)attempts 19–18goals 3–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett14:12
xG 0.64–0.70 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:02
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson10:03
xG 0.41–0.76 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton19:28
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Stone – Brodie20:08
xG 1.18–1.12 (51%)attempts 23–17goals 3–0
- Engelland – Bartkowski12:59
xG 0.22–1.36 (14%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Di Giuseppe – Ryan8:05
xG 1.13–0.20 (85%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho7:48
xG 1.17–0.24 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan4:26
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Rask – Teravainen – Aho5:58
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hanifin12:51
xG 1.15–0.68 (63%)attempts 21–13goals 0–3
- Faulk – Slavin18:59
xG 0.79–0.73 (52%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Murphy13:03
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).