Sun, Feb 26, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 2, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 113 | 09 | 233 |
| FLA | 112 | 011 | 015 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28OTTZack SmithSHAssists: Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 17:13FLAJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 9:58OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:01OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:01FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:04OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:37OTTDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:37FLAShawn Thornton: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:37FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:37FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:33OTTRyan Dzingel: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:50FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:50OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:38OTTTommy Wingels: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:08OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:28OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:28FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:08FLAAlexander Petrovic: Holding2 min
- P3 14:11OTTMike Hoffman: Interference2 min
- P3 16:16OTTRyan Dzingel: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:16FLAReilly Smith: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Hoffman6:28
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Wingels – Pageau8:27
xG 0.43–0.10 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kelly – Varone – Stone2:20
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Dzingel4:31
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Wideman6:08
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson10:15
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Methot – Ceci3:43
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Smith – Trocheck10:00
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov9:47
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour3:19
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Sgarbossa – Marchessault5:45
xG 0.20–0.53 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Matheson2:15
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Yandle – Ekblad11:37
xG 0.35–0.34 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk12:08
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).