Mon, Feb 27, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 08 | 311 | 16 | 433 |
| NJD | 19 | 013 | 213 | 02 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:41NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 2:38NJDJohn MooreAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Damon Severson · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 2:49MTLAlexander RadulovAssists: Alexei Emelin, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 7:54NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Miles Wood, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–3
- P3 8:37MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:07MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Shea Weber, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 2:54MTLAlex GalchenyukPPGWGAssists: Shea Weber, Alexander Radulov · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:02MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:39MTLDavid Desharnais: Interference2 min
- P3 4:39NJDDamon Severson: Embellishment2 min
- P3 7:48MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:09NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- OT 2:04NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Pacioretty – Danault15:13
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk2:34
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Shaw5:52
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Shaw – Galchenyuk2:55
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Petry17:03
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Emelin – Nesterov3:05
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Petry – Beaulieu3:20
xG 0.09–0.18 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Henrique – Noesen2:39
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall13:09
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Smith-Pelly – Coleman – Wood7:48
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Bennett – Blandisi2:49
xG 0.09–0.00 (98%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Santini15:49
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson15:22
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Greene – Lovejoy18:25
xG 0.49–0.61 (44%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).