Tue, Feb 28, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 03 | 112 | 17 | 03 | 0 | 225 |
| FLA | 211 | 06 | 011 | 03 | 2 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:35FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 16:37FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Reilly Smith, Alexander Petrovic · Slap, 0.46 xG0–2
- P2 9:46CARLee StempniakAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 5:48CARSebastian AhoAssists: Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 2. CAR Lee Stempniak stopped
- 3. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 4. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 5. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:18CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:25CARLee Stempniak: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:05FLAJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:25CARElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:25FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Lindholm – Aho13:09
xG 0.76–0.07 (91%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Teravainen – Ryan13:13
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- McClement – Staal – Di Giuseppe2:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe6:26
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlbeck – Murphy9:01
xG 0.65–0.15 (81%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce4:27
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin3:08
xG 0.07–0.06 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck13:45
xG 0.70–0.66 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Sgarbossa6:31
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov17:09
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Marchessault – Malgin5:57
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Pysyk15:42
xG 0.76–0.52 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 1–2
- Yandle – Ekblad15:53
xG 0.27–0.24 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Demers – Matheson18:07
xG 0.28–0.76 (27%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).