Tue, Feb 28, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 2, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 19 | 06 | 225 |
| STL | 16 | 010 | 010 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jaden Schwartz · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 11:51EDMMilan LucicAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:41EDMMark LetestuPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:56EDMAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:56STLMagnus Paajarvi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:21STLColton Parayko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:53EDMAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:18STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:18EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid16:33
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Slepyshev10:15
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:40
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Pakarinen – Khaira7:28
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell17:01
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Gryba – Nurse14:50
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom17:20
xG 0.36–0.65 (36%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz14:36
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Reaves – Barbashev7:01
xG 0.13–0.05 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Paajarvi12:23
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Jaskin12:34
xG 0.37–0.54 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:52
xG 0.83–0.57 (59%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo9:39
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko17:24
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).