Tue, Feb 28, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 6, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 312 | 29 | 17 | 628 |
| WPG | 111 | 210 | 215 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault · Slap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 3:02MINMikael GranlundAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 14:19MINTyler GraovacAssists: Mikael Granlund, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 18:42MINErik HaulaPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Chris Stewart · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 8:03MINMarco ScandellaAssists: Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P2 9:32WPGAdam LowryAssists: Drew Stafford, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P2 13:19MINRyan WhiteAssists: Chris Stewart · Snap, 0.08 xG5–2
- P2 17:37WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–3
- P3 9:35WPGJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 11:17WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–5
- P3 17:50MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Erik Haula, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:54MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:54MINMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:54WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:54WPGPaul Postma: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 10:11WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:20MINEric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:04WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:11MINTyler Graovac: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:50MINNino Niederreiter: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Staal – Schroeder – Niederreiter8:03
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:53
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- White – Stewart – Haula6:15
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Hanzal – Coyle – Graovac8:39
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon4:43
xG 1.14–0.40 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Scandella – Brodin2:20
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin2:20
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Scheifele – Laine10:08
xG 0.49–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–4goals 2–1
- Stafford – Matthias – Lowry6:39
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Stafford – Petan3:51
xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia5:02
xG 0.04–0.17 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Morrissey13:40
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Stuart – Postma6:23
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:31
xG 0.49–0.64 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).