Tue, Feb 28, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 1, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 111 | 06 | 012 | 00 | 129 |
| CGY | 08 | 113 | 08 | 11 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42LAKTanner PearsonPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P2 9:44CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- OT 1:47CGYTJ BrodieGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:06CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:42LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:06LAKAndy Andreoff: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:03CGYTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:03LAKBrayden McNabb: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Lewis15:30
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson11:49
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Clifford – Dowd – Andreoff8:05
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brown – King – Shore13:31
xG 0.47–0.66 (42%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Martinez – McNabb12:44
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Muzzin – LaDue16:00
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Doughty – Forbort21:35
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:26
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan14:12
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson9:01
xG 0.04–0.22 (14%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett11:33
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton18:36
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Stone – Brodie21:09
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Engelland – Bartkowski13:10
xG 0.20–0.58 (26%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).