Tue, Feb 28, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 112 | 04 | 121 |
| SJS | 013 | 19 | 215 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:41TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Josh Leivo, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 12:17SJSBrenden DillonAssists: Kevin Labanc, Joe Pavelski · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 18:36SJSTomas HertlGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:37SJSJoe PavelskiENAssists: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:27TORMorgan Rielly: Interference2 min
- P2 5:49SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:17SJSJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min
- P3 2:08TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P3 5:36SJSBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown11:21
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Boyle – Martin – Leivo7:13
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:22
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:34
xG 0.42–1.48 (22%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev10:55
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Zaitsev6:34
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick14:27
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Boedker13:07
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Ward – Sorensen – Hertl2:24
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Haley – Sorensen – Karlsson6:24
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ward – Hertl – Tierney8:16
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon2:06
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns15:37
xG 0.74–0.52 (59%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Dillon13:22
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).