Thu, Mar 2, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 2, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 03 | 08 | 210 | 221 |
| BOS | 09 | 011 | 113 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:10NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Nick Holden, Rick Nash · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 9:35NYROscar LindbergGWGAssists: Matt Puempel, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 12:56BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:51NYRBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:59BOSDominic Moore: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:06BOSFrank Vatrano: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:05NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:43BOSColin Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:38BOSDavid Backes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello8:46
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Puempel4:22
xG 0.12–0.25 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich6:23
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Hayes – Miller – Vesey7:19
xG 0.00–0.71 (0%)attempts 0–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Clendening – Skjei6:05
xG 0.02–0.20 (10%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Smith – McDonagh11:26
xG 0.08–0.38 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden8:24
xG 0.33–0.69 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Spooner – Vatrano5:03
xG 0.36–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Cehlarik – Pastrnak6:44
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Moore – Beleskey – Nash3:18
xG 0.03–0.02 (57%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand6:38
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Miller5:48
xG 0.46–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo9:58
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Krug7:31
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).