Thu, Mar 2, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 117 | 08 | 04 | 1 | 140 |
| PHI | 013 | 013 | 118 | 05 | 2 | 249 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:34FLAAaron EkbladSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 10:38PHIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jordan Weal scored
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
- 6. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:10PHIJordan Weal: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:45FLAMike Matheson: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:10PHINick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:37FLAJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P1 14:32FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:55FLAMike Matheson: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:36FLAJaromir Jagr: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36PHIMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour3:45
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault8:53
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:22
xG 0.27–0.64 (30%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:18
xG 0.36–1.12 (24%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekblad3:10
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk10:38
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Ekblad2:10
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Weal11:12
xG 0.88–0.13 (87%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Read – Cousins – Couturier12:04
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Schenn10:25
xG 0.76–0.54 (59%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov6:04
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov16:27
xG 1.48–0.78 (65%)attempts 23–18goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas14:13
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Schultz – Gostisbehere11:18
xG 0.73–0.64 (53%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).