Thu, Mar 2, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 5, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 111 | 314 | 533 |
| DAL | 110 | 28 | 17 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:29NYIRyan StromeAssists: Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 19:52DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:33DALRadek FaksaAssists: Patrick Sharp, Greg Pateryn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:14DALJason SpezzaAssists: John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 14:49NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Ryan Strome, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.43 xG2–3
- P3 0:25NYINick LeddyAssists: Anders Lee, John Tavares · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 7:46NYIDennis SeidenbergAssists: Calvin de Haan, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 9:30NYINikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 17:09DALJamie BennSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:53NYICalvin de Haan: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:10DALJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:07DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee11:24
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Chimera – Prince – Strome9:01
xG 0.55–0.52 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Gionta – Clutterbuck – Kulemin8:04
xG 0.03–0.03 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Ho-Sang12:05
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan18:46
xG 1.24–0.60 (67%)attempts 20–14goals 3–0
- Boychuk – Leddy18:46
xG 1.00–0.56 (64%)attempts 20–16goals 2–0
- Hickey – Mayfield13:56
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 20–10goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – McKenzie – Faksa10:42
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Hudler – Shore4:14
xG 0.10–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Ritchie5:04
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Eakin – Ritchie – Shore7:04
xG 0.18–0.55 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Johns – Oleksiak2:42
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Johns13:36
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn2:05
xG 0.06–0.28 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).