Thu, Mar 2, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 19 | 011 | 04 | 0 | 231 |
| LAK | 07 | 010 | 214 | 04 | 1 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04TORTyler BozakAssists: Mitch Marner, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 7:20TORNikita ZaitsevAssists: Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 0:27LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 1:57LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Alec Martinez, Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. LAK Jeff Carter stopped
- 2. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 3. LAK Tanner Pearson stopped
- 4. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 5. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
- 6. TOR William Nylander stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:21TORRoman Polak: Holding2 min
- P2 2:33TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:26LAKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P2 19:32TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown11:41
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews14:04
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Boyle – Martin – Soshnikov6:59
xG 0.16–0.60 (21%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:02
xG 0.62–1.57 (28%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick12:22
xG 0.70–0.56 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev16:49
xG 0.85–0.99 (46%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Marchenko – Rielly17:59
xG 0.22–1.74 (11%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lewis – Shore7:15
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Clifford – Dowd – Kempe6:43
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Gaborik – Carter2:07
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Lewis – Dowd2:03
xG 0.10–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort19:47
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – LaDue13:42
xG 1.16–0.71 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Muzzin – Martinez2:27
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).