Fri, Mar 3, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 0, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 08 | 010 | 029 |
| WPG | 111 | 019 | 210 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51WPGBlake WheelerPPGWGAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 17:44WPGBryan LittleENAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.73 xG0–2
- P3 18:51WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Bryan Little, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.63 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:45STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:00WPGBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:42STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:13STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:00STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:48WPGJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
- P3 3:54STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:33STLScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:33WPGMarko Dano: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:03WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:00STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:00WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz7:46
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Sanford6:41
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Perron10:07
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Upshall – Reaves – Barbashev5:22
xG 0.06–0.39 (14%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson12:13
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko9:11
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo12:44
xG 0.14–0.64 (18%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Copp – Dano6:44
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Laine9:53
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia8:06
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Ehlers10:40
xG 0.61–0.62 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey15:53
xG 0.78–0.21 (78%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:48
xG 0.89–0.76 (54%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Postma – Chiarot9:20
xG 0.21–0.16 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).