Fri, Mar 3, 2017·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 1, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 112 | 08 | 05 | 0 | 132 |
| CHI | 06 | 07 | 115 | 03 | 2 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:27NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Travis Hamonic, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 18:46CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 2. NYI Joshua Ho-Sang stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. NYI Nikolay Kulemin stopped
- 5. CHI Artemi Panarin scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:09NYINikolay Kulemin: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:04CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:30CHIRyan Hartman: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:27NYIAnders Lee: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:23CHITomas Jurco: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee11:18
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Ho-Sang7:26
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Beauvillier7:20
xG 0.07–0.23 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Prince – Strome7:39
xG 0.10–0.34 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy11:37
xG 0.87–0.25 (78%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Leddy3:48
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan2:13
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Hartman10:44
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Jurco6:54
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Rasmussen3:21
xG 0.04–0.02 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Kero – Panarin11:21
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Kempny13:14
xG 0.70–0.03 (96%)attempts 19–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk13:17
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook19:20
xG 0.60–1.10 (35%)attempts 26–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).