Sat, Mar 4, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
New Jersey Devils 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 17 | 15 | 217 |
| BOS | 016 | 212 | 112 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:06BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 11:48NJDDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Steven Santini, Kyle Palmieri · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 18:25BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Patrice Bergeron, David Backes · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 5:51NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 8:18BOSRyan SpoonerGWGAssists: Drew Stafford, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:14NJDKevin Rooney: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:18NJDTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:44NJDTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:07BOSKevan Miller: Interference2 min
- P3 2:04NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:05NJDJohn Moore: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Noesen – Lappin3:54
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Coleman – Wood – Lappin4:42
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Henrique – Bennett – Wood5:32
xG 0.20–0.48 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall8:51
xG 0.23–0.54 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Prout3:56
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Prout – Moore2:34
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Prout – Merrill2:06
xG 0.04–0.07 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Backes – Marchand11:16
xG 0.58–0.15 (79%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Stafford – Spooner – Vatrano9:10
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Krejci – Cehlarik – Pastrnak9:32
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Moore – Nash – Schaller6:53
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo10:12
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Chara – McQuaid3:09
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Miller8:22
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).