Sat, Mar 4, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 111 | 08 | 18 | 227 |
| OTT | 111 | 19 | 17 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Zach Werenski, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 13:25OTTViktor StalbergAssists: Chris Kelly, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:59OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Mark Stone, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 16:58OTTZack SmithENGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
- P3 17:38CBJSam GagnerPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Cam Atkinson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:02OTTChris Kelly: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:19CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:19OTTMark Borowiecki: Instigator2 min
- P1 12:19OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:19CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:19OTTMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:19CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:19OTTErik Karlsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:10OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:24OTTMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:06CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:29OTTTommy Wingels: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner8:08
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg3:57
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Saad5:45
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 1–6goals 1–1
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:20
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Savard15:34
xG 0.50–0.45 (52%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Quincey – Murray10:53
xG 0.57–0.71 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski17:06
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Dzingel – Pageau7:09
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – Stalberg – Wingels8:43
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Burrows – Brassard – Stone5:45
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone3:37
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci2:56
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman4:48
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson14:47
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).