Sat, Mar 4, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 2, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 015 | 110 | 234 |
| FLA | 117 | 012 | 013 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:20FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 18:53DALJohn KlingbergGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:29FLAShawn Thornton: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:05DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:41DALPatrik Nemeth: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:04FLAAlexander Petrovic: Interference2 min
- P1 15:48DALStephen Johns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:32FLAJason Demers: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Hemsky – Hudler – Shore2:25
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin12:15
xG 0.69–0.71 (49%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Eakin – Ritchie – Elie2:09
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Eakin – Elie8:31
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Klingberg – Lindell16:35
xG 0.83–0.93 (47%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Johns15:13
xG 0.37–0.67 (36%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Oleksiak13:59
xG 0.15–0.88 (15%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault13:24
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov13:25
xG 0.60–0.15 (81%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck11:41
xG 0.80–0.52 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 0–2
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour7:16
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Matheson15:55
xG 0.97–0.33 (75%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad13:55
xG 0.75–0.27 (74%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk13:14
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).