Sat, Mar 4, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 013 | 19 | 02 | 131 |
| WSH | 06 | 012 | 14 | 12 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:19PHISean CouturierAssists: Matt Read, Nick Cousins · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 2:40WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Matt Niskanen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 3:25WSHNicklas BackstromPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:55WSHJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:55PHINick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:55WSHJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:46WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:28PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Interference2 min
- P2 12:29WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:36WSHKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:18WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:05PHIBrandon Manning: Holding2 min
- P3 16:47WSHDmitry Orlov: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:20PHIMichael Del Zotto: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Cousins – Couturier7:38
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Weal8:47
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Read – Bellemare2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Konecny3:35
xG 0.10–0.11 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gostisbehere8:03
xG 0.79–0.24 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas10:23
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Manning3:05
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:49
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana4:58
xG 0.11–0.29 (29%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:08
xG 0.31–0.64 (33%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson8:11
xG 0.20–0.53 (27%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Shattenkirk8:14
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Orlov2:56
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov14:30
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).