Sat, Mar 4, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 1, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 03 | 07 | 113 | 123 |
| WPG | 314 | 211 | 16 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:22WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Dustin Byfuglien · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:47WPGBlake WheelerPPGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 10:02WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 7:03WPGBen ChiarotAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 9:05WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 13:54WPGJacob TroubaUnassisted · Slap, 0.40 xG0–6
- P3 19:44COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Cody Goloubef, Rene Bourque · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:28COLBlake Comeau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:51COLJoe Colborne: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:36COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min
- P1 17:52COLJohn Mitchell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:53WPGPatrik Laine: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:39WPGShawn Matthias: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:44COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:45WPGToby Enstrom: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:35WPGJoel Armia: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Comeau – Compher4:28
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Colborne2:17
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Duchene – Nieto – Rantanen4:46
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nieto – Grigorenko – Compher4:26
xG 0.04–0.13 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Barrie4:15
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Barberio – Barrie2:11
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson5:10
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Little – Ehlers7:31
xG 1.02–0.21 (83%)attempts 8–7goals 3–0
- Thorburn – Copp – Dano6:05
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Laine10:59
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia10:32
xG 0.26–0.83 (24%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey13:58
xG 0.96–0.54 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 3–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien12:08
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Postma – Chiarot13:40
xG 0.44–0.57 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).