Sat, Mar 4, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 211 | 211 | 533 |
| NSH | 017 | 28 | 110 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:23CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Richard Panik · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 11:03CHIJordin TootooAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 12:20NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Johansen, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 19:03CHIJonathan ToewsPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 19:17NSHCalle JarnkrokUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 4:13NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 18:55CHIBrian CampbellGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:21CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:24CHIMichal Rozsival: Interference2 min
- P1 6:23CHIJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:23NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:13NSHAnthony Bitetto: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:53NSHVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Desjardins – Kruger7:38
xG 0.63–0.18 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Toews – Panik – Jurco6:54
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Toews – Panik – Hartman7:16
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hossa – Jurco – Kero4:39
xG 0.03–0.15 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Kempny11:06
xG 0.66–0.15 (81%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk19:10
xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Campbell2:14
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Wilson – Jarnkrok13:29
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:46
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Fisher – Smith – Fiala11:49
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Fiddler – McLeod – Watson5:42
xG 0.06–0.54 (10%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm22:13
xG 1.13–0.42 (73%)attempts 28–15goals 1–0
- Weber – Bitetto10:20
xG 0.41–0.20 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Josi – Irwin19:07
xG 0.53–0.93 (36%)attempts 13–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).