Sun, Mar 5, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New Jersey Devils 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 211 | 15 | 322 |
| NJD | 05 | 010 | 05 | 020 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:45CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P2 5:35CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Sam Gagner, David Savard · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 8:56CBJSam GagnerAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Scott Hartnell · Snap, 0.40 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:35CBJSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:26CBJKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:47CBJZach Werenski: Illegal substitution2 min
- P3 3:03NJDKevin Rooney: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Gagner – Bjorkstrand8:49
xG 0.69–0.05 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner10:05
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Korpikoski – Karlsson – Anderson3:57
xG 0.08–0.13 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg12:54
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard16:47
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Quincey – Murray15:48
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski14:02
xG 0.41–0.60 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Bennett – Zacha9:05
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Coleman – Blandisi9:38
xG 0.28–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall12:48
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Noesen – Lappin – Rooney8:03
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Santini15:38
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Stollery2:02
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Merrill16:03
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).