Mon, Mar 6, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Dallas Stars 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 210 | 15 | 422 |
| WSH | 012 | 116 | 116 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48DALDevin ShoreAssists: Patrick Sharp, Stephen Johns · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
- P2 4:04DALRadek FaksaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 5:58DALJason SpezzaGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 15:52WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Brooks Orpik · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 12:26WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Karl Alzner, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 18:42DALPatrick SharpENAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.45 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:17DALCody Eakin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:09WSHKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:50DALBrett Ritchie: Holding2 min
- P2 7:50DALCody Eakin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:24WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:29DALPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Faksa – Shore9:10
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Hemsky – Eakin – Elie11:24
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin8:57
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Ritchie9:08
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Johns14:10
xG 1.55–0.52 (75%)attempts 19–21goals 2–1
- Nemeth – Oleksiak10:20
xG 0.03–0.37 (8%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell18:19
xG 0.34–0.93 (27%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:50
xG 1.00–0.34 (75%)attempts 20–7goals 2–1
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson6:06
xG 0.17–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana7:36
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov10:41
xG 0.26–1.15 (18%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson10:20
xG 0.54–0.47 (54%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Carlson4:46
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov15:26
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).